Non si salva nessuno , La guerra delle valute continua,Chi ha venduto oro , Comprare azioni europee?,Gli stessi fatti , angolature diverse

(BLOOMBERG)
Il contagio si diffonde
BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) plunged in Paris on a possible ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service, extending their more than 40 percent slide in the last three months.
I mercati vedono la Germania coinvolta
Never before have investors disagreed more with equity analysts about the outlook for profits in Germany.
Companies in the DAX Index (DAX) will earn 723.43 euros a share next year, up 11 percent from 2011, according to securities industry estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The benchmark gauge for German common equity is trading for 7.2 times forecasts, the lowest multiple on record. Should the ratio revert to its five- year average of 15.6 and stock prices stay the same, profits would fall to 331 euros next year, the data show.

The price of options to protect against losses in Deutsche Bank shares is rising more than other European lenders. Three- month options that pay owners should the bank drop 10 percent cost 1.3 times the price of bullish contracts, according to Bloomberg data. That’s up from 1.14 at the end of July, the biggest increase among financial firms in the Stoxx 600. Stocks subject to bans on short selling were excluded.

La Turchia aveva timore di vedere la moneta troppo su
Turkey’s economy unexpectedly expanded in the second quarter from the previous three months, weakening the case for further interest rate cuts by the central bank.

Central bank Governor Erdem Basci surprised markets by cutting the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 5.75 percent last month, as growth slowed from last year. Basci is betting that the need to protect the economy from the risk of recession in Europe, Turkey’s main trade partner, outweighs the threat of a record current account gap run up during the boom.

(WSJ)
In Europa abbiamo venduto oro nel momento meno opportuno
Vilified for everything from currency manipulation to arid oratory, central bankers also turn out to be lousy gold traders. From 1989 to 2008, the world's central banks disposed of a net 190 million ounces at an average price of about $398 each, according to data from the World Gold Council. Since then, they have bought back a net 28 million ounces—at nearly three times the price.
If the world's central banks were a single entity, this sell-low-buy-high approach would be perverse. In reality, the big sellers were mainly to be found in Europe,
In teoria non si può escludere
A Long-Term Case for Stocks
Richard Sylla, a financial historian at New York University's Stern School of Business, sees better days ahead for stocks, albeit in a few years.

(MARKETWATCH)
European stock lows tempt and test fund managers
Dividend-paying companies, resources among the favorites
C’è chi vede le azioni europee migliori di quelle USA
Michael A. Gayed, chief investment strategist at Pension Partners LLC, noted that U.S. stocks have dropped less than those in Europe.
“I think the most vulnerable equity market now is the U.S.,” he said in emailed comments. “So while Europe can certainly continue to fall, I think the U.S. can fall much more as a way of closing the outperformance gap.”
Due modi per vedere gli stessi fatti
(BLOOMBERG)
Italy sold 11.5 billion euros ($15.6 billion) of Treasury bills as demand waned and borrowing costs rose amid Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The Rome-based Treasury sold 7.5 billion euros of one-year bills at an average yield of 4.153 percent compared with 2.959 percent the last time securities of similar maturity were sold on Aug. 10. Demand was 1.53 times the amount on offer, compared with 1.94 times at the previous sale.
The Treasury also sold 4 billion euros of 3-month bills. The yield was 1.907 percent, up from the 1.034 percent the last time such securities were sold on March 10. The bid-to-cover ratio was 1.86, compared with 2.42 at the previous sale.
(LINKIESTA)
News
Piazza Affari crolla e lo spread va ai massimi
Redazione Economia
Piazza Affari è in profondo rosso, mentre le banche francesi crollano impaurite dal default della Grecia, sempre più vicino. Nel frattempo, lo spread fra Btp e Bund tocca quota 380 punti base e i Cds sull’Italia sono al massimo storico. Nell'asta di stamattina poi il rendimento dei Bot a 12 mesi ha toccato il massimo dal settembre 2008, passando al 4,1% dal 2,9% di agosto mentre le attese lo davano in area 3,4%.

Performance PBVROA+GYP al 31 agosto 2011

Come ho già detto , prendo i titoli US in testa al PBVROA del mese , calcolo il GYP per ognuno e scelgo i 9 migliori .
Da inizio anno l'ER è 0,4 e quindi in totale -3,7%.
Il benchmark è S&P 500.
Per i titoli EU ho visto che le performance migliori vengono dai primi 12 (vedi dopo).
Il benchmark è ES50.
Sto anche calcolando cosa succederebbe se , ogni mese , prendessi i primi 18 titoli USA della lista PBVROA e i primi 12 EU della stessa lista , seguendo (per vendite ed acquisti ) la stessa logica di PBVROA .
Da inizio anno :
USA : ER 3,0 e quindi in totale -1,1%
EU : ER+12 e quindi un totale -8%
Ricordo che PBVROA da inizio anno totalizza -8,3 %.
I dividendi ed i costi delle transazioni non sono inclusi.

Servono soldi , Obama ne ha pochi , I tagli dividono dovunque, Pensioni private ?

(WSJ)
Fondo monetario , BCE , OCSE tutti pessimisti . E chiedono di investire (il che vuol dire che da qualche parte bisogna tagliare , per trovare i soldi)
OECD Cuts Growth Forecasts
The OECD slashed its growth forecasts for this year and put pressure on central banks to intervene if there is continuing weakness.

(BARRON’S)

E’ un'altra spinta a spendere tutti insieme appassionatamente . Dove prendere i soldi ( vedi sopra) è un’altra storia , e a chi darli ancora un’altra

Is a Plaza Accord 2.0 ahead? Some 26 years ago this month, the major industrialized nations hatched a plan to lower the dollar and unleash a wave of liquidity that raised global equity markets in the mid-1980s. Could it happen again?
Yes, say Joachim Fels, Manor Pradhan and Spyros Andreopolous, who head Morgan Stanley's global economics. In a report released Wednesday, they write that monetary authorities of the developed economies -- the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England -- could react to "weak growth and soggy asset markets" with coordinated easing.

(REUTERS)
Obama non se lo fila nessuno , perché non potrà spendere un granchè

Analysis: Markets have hope but Obama speech may change little
NEW YORK (Reuters) - After learning the economy added no new jobs in August, investors say they are ready for bold ideas from Washington to put people to work.

E la situazione non migliora , nonostante tutto quello che Obama ha speso

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Applications for unemployment compensation rose slightly last week, indicating little change in a weak U.S. jobs market in which net hiring remains near a standstill.

(MARKETWATCH)

L’Italia non è la sola a dividersi quando si tratta di tagliare

First 'supercommittee' rift
Members of bipartisan panel charged with cutting the U.S. deficit by $1.5 trillion claim they're eager to compromise but offer sharply differing perceptions of the panel’s goals at the new body's first meeting.




(CHICAGO BLOG)

Una tesi interessante , ma da capire bene.

Molti Paesi oltre ad avere il debito pubblico hanno un'enorme esposizione legata al sistema previdenziale pubblico. Un'eccezione è il Cile, dove nel 1981 - per iniziativa dell'allora ministro Piñera - è stato costruito un sistema «a capitalizzazione» che ha sostituito il sistema detto «a ripartizione»……
…. Secondo Piñera pure l'Italia trarrebbe grande beneficio da una riforma di questo tipo. D'altra parte il modello cileno sta iniziando a trovare accoglienza non solo in America Latina, ma anche nell'Europa centroorientale e in quella occidentale. Significativo è il caso della Svezia, che a partire dal 2001 ha permesso ai propri cittadini di versare in un conto individuale 2,5 punti percentuali delle rispettive imposte sul salario a fini previdenziali……

L'IVA si può riscuotere , La Germania conta di più dell'Italia , La guerra delle valute continua, Una relazione inversa borse-oro

E’ strano che nessuno copi dall’estero
(CHICAGO BLOG)
SAN PAOLO, DOVE L'IVA NON SI EVADE
di Diego Corrado e Marco Leonardi 06.09.2011

I dati che contano secondo i mercati
(FINANCIAL TIMES)
German industrial production surges
Recession looks less likely in largest EU economy

La sentenza in Germania conta più della manovra italiana
(MARKETWATCH)
Wall Street looks to President Obama’s job speech and finds some relief in a German court ruling.

La guerra delle valute fa un altro passo
(BLOOMBERG)
Switzerland opened a new round in a global currency war as fading economic growth forces policy makers to step up efforts to spur expansion.
The Swiss National Bank’s decision yesterday to cap the franc’s rate for the first time since 1978 marked a bid to protect trade hurt by the currency that last month strengthened to records against the euro and the dollar. The franc plunged 8.1 percent yesterday against the euro, the most since the creation of Europe’s single currency. It was little changed at 1.2058 per euro at 10:53 a.m. in London.
The initiative may leave Norway and Sweden vulnerable to unwanted gains in their currencies as countries such as Brazil and Japan fight to limit appreciation amid a flight from the euro debt crisis and near-zero U.S. interest rates. With Group of Seven finance chiefs set to hold talks this week, it also exposes the clash among policy makers counting on exports to offset slumping demand at home.

Il taglio dei tassi serve anche ad evitare che il cambio salga e renda le merci meno competitive (vedi Svizzera)
(MARKETWATCH)
— A new round of interest-rate cuts by central banks in emerging markets, as developing countries respond to stalling global growth and try to tame currency appreciation, could benefit the broader economy and help stock markets recover, say analysts and fund managers.
“Rate cuts are clearly designed to provide monetary stimulus domestically,” said Michael Bechara, managing director at risk-management firm Granite Consulting Group.
“It’s difficult to say exactly where this money will go, but generally low interest rates and cheap money flow into risk assets such as equities, so we may see some boost to stock markets globally.”

Vedremo nei prossimi giorni , ma non è detto che debba essere così automatico
(WSJ)
Stocks' Gain is Gold's Pain. Again.
If stocks are rallying, then gold must be falling.