Comprare bond , stock o aspettare?, La Cina reale ,L'Europa spremuta

(BLOOMBERG)
Bisogna essere dei buoni contrarian per farlo adesso
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Neel Kashkari said investors should buy equities because valuations, income growth and dividends show the asset class is attractive.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s price-earnings ratio sank to a 28-month low of 12.2 last month, and then recovered to 12.5, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The inverse of that multiple, known as the earnings yield, shows income represents 8 percent of the measure’s price, or 6.1 percentage points more than the rate on 10-year Treasuries. That’s the biggest gap since 2009, when the level was the highest in Bloomberg data going back to 1962. The dividend payout is exceeding bonds for the second period since the 1950s.
(REUTERS)
I “bondisti” (che sono sempre più bravi degli “stockisti”) stanno lanciando qualche segnale
The share of investors who said on Monday they were neutral, or owning Treasuries equal to their portfolio benchmarks, dipped to 72 percent on Monday from 78 percent the previous week, J.P. Morgan Securities said on Tuesday.
The number of outright neutrals was the lowest since late July, J.P. Morgan Securities said.
The share of investors who said they are short U.S. government debt, or holding fewer Treasuries than their benchmarks, rose to 17 percent from the prior week's 13 percent.
The share of investors who said they were long Treasuries, or holding more U.S. government debt than their benchmarks, rose to 11 percent from 9 percent, J.P. Morgan said.
Meglio perdere qualcosa che molto?
(BLOOMBERG)
How's this for an investment opportunity: a guaranteed yield of 3.2 percent, with an enormous potential downside. As risky as that sounds, millions of investors are moving money into Treasury bonds as a "safe haven." In early September, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond sank to a new low of 3.2 percent, while the 10-year note fell to 1.9 percent. If the inflation rate stays anywhere close to its current modest 3.6 percent pace, long-term investors will be guaranteed to lose money after factoring in inflation's toll.
Eppure i grandi “bondisti” ci credono
(WSJ)
I suspect that Pimco and Gross are not just thinking about Fed intervention, but rather they are changing their economic outlook. In other words, with the economy weakening, inflation is likely to remain constrained and interest rates will be soft. Therefore, both scenarios — Fed intervention and a weakening economy — warrant a longer portfolio duration.
Anche perché alcune ipotesi sono fondate
(BLOOMBERG)
Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Stagnate
Anche altri “stockisti “ la vedono diversamente
(Reuters) - BlackRock Inc Chief Executive Laurence Fink said beaten-down European equities and stocks that pay dividends are still a good bet during current tumultuous markets.
At the same time, it might be prudent for investors to avoid low-yielding U.S. debt and some European debt as Europe battles its worsening debt crisis, the head of the world's largest asset management firm said on Wednesday.
Qui l’acquisto è posticipato alla caduta dell’euro
(MARKETWATCH)
Buying opportunity of a lifetime getting closer
Commentary: European stocks are about to get really cheap
…….The few weeks after the euro collapses, however, will be one of the greatest buying opportunities of our lifetimes. Shares prices will overreact massively, and sink well below their 2008 lows.
But the euro zone has plenty of great, global companies — big, successful businesses that sell their products right around the world. Economies such as Italy haven’t grown for a decade. Liberated from the euro they will start to motor again. Countries bounce back fast once they are liberated from dysfunctional monetary systems — and equity prices bounce back even faster.
That moment is getting closer all the time — we may well see it within the next twelve months, and possibly before the end of this year. But until the euro crisis is resolved, every kind of equity market is best avoided.
Si parla sempre di valute
(WSJ)
Euro Selloff Spreads to Emerging Markets
Asian currencies tumbled against the dollar as investors increasingly feared a default in Greece could ripple through foreign financial markets.
La Cina ci vuole comprare , non aiutare
(ILSOLE24ORE)
Obiettivo investimenti industriali , non BTP
Il Tesoro conferma l'incontro con il fondo cinese -
«Improbabile che la Cina salvi l'Italia» (Wsj)
A furia di spremere i limoni , poi non rimane più niente . La politica tedesca e l’inflazione che non c’è.
MADRID (MarketWatch) — More than half of Europe’s fund managers expect the region will fall into recession in the next 12 months, a factor that has driven risk appetite to its lowest levels since early in 2009, a survey published Tuesday revealed.