Opinioni in libertà

Alcuni titoli
Financial sector layoffs rise, more cuts ahead
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. financial firms have been cutting staff dramatically this year, with more layoffs expected to come from Wall Street, according to a report on Tuesday.

Fed won't act soon on weak economy
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely acknowledge renewed weakness in the U.S. economy in a post-meeting policy statement on Wednesday, but don't expect policymakers to do anything about it any time soon.

Unease Rises Over Money Funds' Exposure to Europe
The biggest U.S. money-market funds hold roughly $1 trillion of debt issued by big European banks, which hold piles of Greek and other European government bonds.

Questo stralcio è significativo (MarketWatch- Matthew Lynn)

So what principles should investors keep in mind to guide them through a politics-dominated market?

There are three big ones.

One, watch the electoral rather than the earnings calendar.

What happens to corporate profits doesn’t matter nearly so much as it might do in more normal times. The electoral cycle is more significant than the business cycle. How will that play out in practice? Well, you probably won’t see any movement on the U.S. deficit until after the 2012 presidential election. Until then, there will just be uncertainty and confusion. Likewise, you won’t get any movement on the French deficit — which, in truth, could make it the next victim of the sovereign-debt crisis —until we know whether President Nicolas Sarkozy stands a chance of being re-elected.

Two, figure out where the votes are.

In politics, nobody does anything that costs them re-election. Leaders live in fear of some group of floating voters in Hamburg or New Hampshire who might suddenly cast them out of office and leave them with nothing better to do than write their memoirs. So it doesn’t really matter how many bankers or economists write learned articles saying that Greece needs massive fiscal transfers if the euro is to survive. It isn’t going to happen, because if it did, German Chancellor Angela Merkel could say “auf wiedersehen” to her job.

Three, expect muddle and delay.

When a decision has to be made by the government, it is never done quickly or cleanly. Politicians broker deals, they make compromises and they cut deals. In their trade, that is how you get to the top. It is usually the one thing they are really skilled at.

So don’t expect the euro crisis to be resolved one way or another any time soon. It would be better if it was, because the uncertainty is hitting investment, spreading unease about the banking system, and is going to damage growth for the next few years. Still, it isn’t going to happen. Europe’s leaders will dither and delay, and try and kick the hard decisions into next month or next year, because that is the way they are used to dealing with things. And it would be better as well if the Chinese leadership decided the grasp the moment, and turn the yuan into a floating currency. But hard decisions are not what they specialize in.

For the moment, put aside charts of profitability, or valuations of bonds versus equities. All that counts is how the politics of the next year unfolds. And that means more volatility, more uncertainty — and markets that moves sideways for at least 12 months.